Models

Age-stratified numbers of COVID-19 testpositives and deaths

This work was done as part of the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 (nfdi4health.de). We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) – Project Number 451265285.

A principled approach to parametrize SIR-type epidemiologic models of different complexities by embedding the model structure as a hidden layer into a general Input-Output Non-Linear Dynamical System (IO-NLDS). Non-explicitly modelled impacts on the system are imposed as inputs of the system. Observable data are coupled to hidden states of the model by appropriate data models considering possible biases of the data. We estimate model parameters including their time-dependence by a Bayesian knowledge ...