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Project: Task Force COVID-19 Leipzig2
On the Parametrization of Epidemiologic Models-Lessons from Modelling COVID-19 Epidemic.
Genetical Statistics and Systems Biology, Task Force COVID-19 Leipzig

Abstract (Expand)

Numerous prediction models of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were proposed in the past. Unknown parameters of these models are often estimated based on observational data. However, lag in case-reporting, changing … testing policy or incompleteness of data lead to biased estimates. Moreover, parametrization is time-dependent due to changing age-structures, emerging virus variants, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and vaccination programs. To cover these aspects, we propose a principled approach to parametrize a SIR-type epidemiologic model by embedding it as a hidden layer into an input-output non-linear dynamical system (IO-NLDS). Observable data are coupled to hidden states of the model by appropriate data models considering possible biases of the data. This includes data issues such as known delays or biases in reporting. We estimate model parameters including their time-dependence by a Bayesian knowledge synthesis process considering parameter ranges derived from external studies as prior information. We applied this approach on a specific SIR-type model and data of Germany and Saxony demonstrating good prediction performances. Our approach can estimate and compare the relative effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and provide scenarios of the future course of the epidemic under specified conditions. It can be translated to other data sets, i.e., other countries and other SIR-type models.

Authors: Y. Kheifetz, H. Kirsten, M. Scholz

Date Published: 2nd Jul 2022

Publication Type: Journal article

Human Diseases: COVID-19

Covid-19 Transmission Trajectories-Monitoring the Pandemic in the Worldwide Context.
Task Force COVID-19 Leipzig

Abstract (Expand)

The Covid-19 pandemic is developing worldwide with common dynamics but also with marked differences between regions and countries. These are not completely understood, but presumably, provide a clue … to find ways to mitigate epidemics until strategies leading to its eradication become available. We describe an iteractive monitoring tool available in the internet. It enables inspection of the dynamic state of the epidemic in 187 countries using trajectories that visualize the transmission and removal rates of the epidemic and in this way bridge epi-curve tracking with modelling approaches. Examples were provided which characterize state of epidemic in different regions of the world in terms of fast and slow growing and decaying regimes and estimate associated rate factors. The basic spread of the disease is associated with transmission between two individuals every two-three days on the average. Non-pharmaceutical interventions decrease this value to up to ten days, whereas 'complete lock down' measures are required to stop the epidemic. Comparison of trajectories revealed marked differences between the countries regarding efficiency of measures taken against the epidemic. Trajectories also reveal marked country-specific recovery and death rate dynamics. The results presented refer to the pandemic state in May to July 2020 and can serve as 'working instruction' for timely monitoring using the interactive monitoring tool as a sort of 'seismometer' for the evaluation of the state of epidemic, e.g., the possible effect of measures taken in both, lock-down and lock-up directions. Comparison of trajectories between countries and regions will support developing hypotheses and models to better understand regional differences of dynamics of Covid-19.

Authors: H. Loeffler-Wirth, M. Schmidt, H. Binder

Date Published: 20th Jul 2020

Publication Type: Journal article

Human Diseases: COVID-19

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